Biden Thinks He Can Beat Trump Again. The Odds Aren't in His Favor
U.S. POLITICS
ELECTIONS
President Joe Biden has said he believes he can defeat former President Donald Trump if they face each other again in the 2024 presidential election but polls and betting odds paint a more complex picture.
The president discussed the matter during a wide-ranging interview with CNN's Jake Tapper on Tuesday and said he would take time to consider whether to run again after the upcoming midterm elections.
Both Biden and Trump have suggested they will run for the White House again but neither man has formally declared his candidacy; the process of selecting the Democratic and Republican nominees won't begin until early 2024.
"Is one of the calculations that you think you're the only one who can beat Donald Trump?" Tapper asked.
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Combination photo, Trump and Joe Biden
Above, former President Donald Trump (L) is photographed in Arizona on October 9, 2022. President Joe Biden (R) is pictured above in October 2022. Bookmakers offer better odds of Trump winning the 2024 election than Biden should both men run for president.
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"I believe I can beat Donald Trump again," Biden replied.
Biden defeated Trump in 2020, winning both the popular vote and the Electoral College vote to secure the White House. However, polls and betting markets suggest the former president may have the advantage.
"Biden might be confident but the odds say otherwise, as our traders actually have Donald Trump the current 11/4 favorite to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election," a spokesperson for Irish bookmakers Paddy Power told Newsweek on Wednesday.
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Paddy Power is currently offering odds of 11/2 on Biden to win re-election in 2024 and his odds are worse than Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is also considered a contender for the GOP nomination and currently has odds of 3/1.
Trump has a 26.7 percent likelihood of winning, while Biden has a 15.5 percent chance of winning, according to Paddy Power oddsmakers.
"Sandwiched in between them and pushing Biden into third position in the odds is Ron DeSantis," the bookmakers' spokesperson said.
Bookmakers Betfair, which operates the world's largest online betting exchange, told Newsweek on Wednesday that Trump is the favorite to win the next presidential election on odds of 4/1.
Betfair is offering odds of 5/1 on a Biden victory, while odds on DeSantis being elected president in 2024 were better than Biden's at 9/2.
Biden and Trump are also favored to win their respective parties' nominations, according to Betfair's odds, setting up a possible rematch.
"After insisting he could beat Donald Trump in another presidential election earlier this week, Joe Biden could get the chance to do it again," Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom told Newsweek.
"The current U.S. president is the 9/5 favorite to be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 election, while Trump is the 11/8 frontrunner to lead the Republicans, with Ron DeSantis following behind at 12/5," he said.
Recent polls also suggest Biden could struggle to defeat Trump. An Emerson College poll conducted from October 6 to 7 among 1,000 likely voters found the former president leading with 45 percent support to Biden's 43 percent.
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A previous Emerson College poll from October 2 to 4 among 959 likely voters showed Trump at 47 percent and Biden at 39 percent—a lead of eight points.
"It's hard to say that a Biden vs. Trump rematch could be predicted as anything but a tossup at this point," Thomas Gift, founding director of University College London's Centre on U.S. Politics, told Newsweek. "There's just so much time between now and 2024 that it's hard to make any firm forecasts."
Gift said that the midterms would give "a better indication of where Democrats and Republicans stand with both their bases and swing voters, particularly in key battleground states."
"Biden is probably the best chance Democrats have to beat Trump, but it's not clear that Trump is the best chance Republicans have to beat Biden," he continued, adding that Trump is "almost certain to face a primary opponent if he does throw his hat in the ring."
"And even if he emerges victorious, there's a big question of how unified GOP voters will be coming out of that race. That could put Trump on his back foot even before the general election begins," Gift said.
"One thing is for sure, however: Anyone who thinks Trump doesn't have a shot in 2024 is seriously misreading the tea leaves," he added.
