Although New York sports betting laws do not allow betting on presidential elections, as soon as Joe Biden had been declared the winner over 45th President Donald Trump, sports betting sites across Europe – where political betting is legal – began pricing up who would win the 2024 election
In order to give context to the next election odds, we've provided the implied probability along with each candidate's odds to become the next President of the United States.
⭐️ Donald Trump +300 25%
⭐️ Ron DeSantis +350 22.2%
⭐️ Joe Biden +600 14.3%
⭐️ Kamala Harris +1200 7.7%
⭐️ Gavin Newsom +1600 5.9%
⭐️ Mike Pence +2000 4.8%
⭐️ Pete Buttigieg +2500 3.8%
⭐️ Michelle Obama +3300 2.9%
⭐️ Nikki Haley +3300 2.9%
⭐️ Hillary Clinton +4000 2.4%
⭐️ Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson +5000 2%
⭐️ Mike Pompeo +5000 2%
⭐️ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +6600 1.5%
⭐️ Tucker Carlson +6600 1.5%
⭐️ Candace Owens +8000 1.2%
⭐️ Andrew Yang +10000 1%
⭐️ Bernie Sanders +10000 1%
⭐️ Kanye West +10000 1%
⭐️ Bill Gates +20000 0.5%
⭐️ Elon Musk +20000 0.5%
⭐️ Joe Rogan +20000 0.5%
According to the 2024 election odds listed at Ladbrokes, UK's leading political oddsmaker, Donald Trump's 25% chance to win places him as the betting favorite at to be the next US President. As for the current President, Ladbrokes gives Joe Biden less than a 15% chance of securing a second term, which is good for third favorite behind Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
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Outside a few days at the end of June and beginning of July, Trump has been favorite since the market opened and his odds of +300 don’t seem to be moving much. That’s largely thanks to his base rallying behind the former president post-2020, while Trump has been successful in getting his GOP nominations onto various state tickets for the upcoming midterms.
Trump is still the big player in Republican politics but Ron DeSantis, which is listed at +350 (22.2% chance)with Ladbrokes, is a big rival for the presidency. The governor of Florida has positioned himself as an alternative to the potentially toxic Trump, while boasting many of the elder statesman’s policies.
Meanwhile, Biden is lingering at +600 (14.3% chance) in the 2024 president odds. His is a remarkably wide price for a sitting president seeking a second term. What’s more, the Democrats seemingly have few other options. VP Kamala Harris has 7.7% chance to win the election, and transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg has a 3.8% chance.
In fact, so weak is the Democratic field for potential 2024 candidates that Michele Obama has a 2.9% chance to become president.
For now, you won't find any of these political odds at New York betting apps due to betting on politics being prohibited in the Empire State but our reporters will follow the European sites covering the election to ensure we stay up-to-date on the latest odds.
Latest 2024 President Odds Movement
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Trump leads DeSantis in the latest US president odds but not by much. The two GOP figureheads are way out in front, and DeSantis actually overtook Trump for a brief period in June when it looked as though the former president would face criminal charges over the January 6th riots.
That could still come to haunt Trump but for now he leads the US politics betting odds. Biden, meanwhile, has seen his chances of winning in 2024 fall from 20% to 14.3%. His slide comes as poll after poll reveals record dissatisfaction levels in the president. Biden hasn’t done enough to address inflation, energy prices, environmental crises and Russian aggression – and voters are turning against him.
The latest president odds movements also show Californian Democrat Gavin Newsom is failing to make an impact in this race, while Harris has also seen her popularity slide. Right now, it looks like the GOP will win the 2024 election. The next question, then, is who will be on the winning ticket?
Who Will Run for President in 2024?
We’re still more than two years out from the 2024 US election – but campaigning will soon get underway. On the Democratic side, incumbent Biden may seek a second term, while VP Harris, Buttigieg and Newsom could all compete for the Dems pick.
Meanwhile, the Republican party looks set to choose either Trump or DeSantis. The big decision for party members centers around Trump’s electability across the nation. He lost the last election by seven million votes. Can he reclaim this deficit in 2024?
Donald Trump (25% Chance)
Former President Donald Trump is riding high in the 2024 presidential election odds. And it's not hard to see why. Trump rocked the global political betting markets in 2016 when he beat Hillary Clinton to the White House despite the odds suggesting he had a 25% chance of winning. Trump is the current second favorite to win the 2024 election with +300 odds. This has surprised some analysts who can't see how the businessman can overturn the heavy defeat he suffered to Joe Biden. But Trump has beat the establishment before and could easily do so again if the stars align in his favor.
Ron DeSantis (22.2% Chance)
Keep your friends close and your enemies closer. That could well be the mantra Ron DeSantis uses during the Republican primaries as he tries to establish himself as an alternative to Trump. DeSantis, the Florida governor, would be a favorite for the GOP nomination if the former president was not around. He is currently playing a tight balancing act, needing the approval of Trump voters but also offering something different to more centrist Republicans. At odds of +350 DeSantis is now the betting favorite to be the next President of the United States.
Joe Biden (14.3% Chance)
Presidents seeking a second term always have a boost in the polls – and so it is a sign of just how bad things have gotten for Joe Biden in his first year as president that he isn't leading the 2024 election odds. Biden is +600 to win this contest as his popularity has shrunk to a record low. The veteran promised change when he came to office and many Americans don't believe he has delivered. How Biden fares between now and the Democratic primaries could make or break the 2024 election result.
Kamala Harris (7.7% Chance)
Biden's vice president Kamala Harris was initially intended to succeed the veteran in 2024 but that looks increasingly unlikely. Harris ticks all the boxes for a Democratic nominee in the 21st century but there are claims Biden's administration has steadily sidelined her office. If Trump vs. Clinton in 2016 was a controversial election, just imagine the media storm from all sides of a Trump vs. Harris battle. At +1200 the vice president is in a great position to move into the Oval Office – but most punters will likely wait to see what Biden's intentions are before backing Harris.
Mike Pence (4.8% Chance)
Some believe Donald Trump's former VP Mike Pence already has 2024 in sight. The Republican recently rebutted the Trump claim that the 2020 election result could have been overturned, and is evidently positioning himself as the non-Trumpian candidate among the GOP. But Pence isn't an overly inspiring choice for America's center ground. His odds of +2000 have not moved in months.
Hillary Clinton (2.4% Chance)
Rumors that Clinton could again run for president began to emerge in early 2022 amid growing Democratic unrest over Biden's handling of the economy. The former First Lady could well offer an alternative to Biden or Harris, but would America vote for her? Some bookmakers cut their odds on Clinton to as low as +2500 off the back of suggestions she's interested in 2024. Others have remained cautious with a price closer to +7500.
Tucker Carlson (1.5% Chance)
Some bookmakers have Tucker Carlson as wide as +6600 to win the 2024 presidential election. He is by no means the betting favorite, but then again neither was Donald Trump before the GOP primaries. Carlson has hinted he could run for office and use his TV personality as a platform to gather votes. The only issue is it's been done before, and having him up against Trump in a primary debate could worsen both their approval ratings.
Celebrity Wildcard Candidates
Trump's win in 2016 guaranteed that we won't escape a future election without rumors of a celebrity wildcard candidate. Remember, Trump was priced way out at +10000 in the odds when he first sought the Republican nomination. And there are plenty more US celebrities with such huge personal followings that they could be tempted by office:
Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson (2% Chance)
Could The Rock become the People's Champ in politics as well as wrestling, movies, and entertainment? The bookies give Dwayne Johnson odds of between +3300 and +7700 of winning the 2024 presidential race. In the past, Johnson has said: "I would consider a presidential run in the future if that’s what the people wanted. Truly I mean that, and I’m not flippant in any way with my answer." Indeed, The Rock is never flippant. But talk is one thing, and entering the presidential race may be a step too far.
Kanye West (1% Chance)
The rapper already has experience running, having entered as an independent in 2020 with the election slogan 'Ye For President'. Kanye West earned more than 60,000 votes across 12 states in that election, which is an arguably impressive result. Transforming that into a presidency would realistically require him to join one of the big two parties. Would the Republicans take him? Stranger things have happened. But the bookies aren't expecting a Kanye victory in 2024 and have him priced at +10000.
Joe Rogan (0.5% Chance)
The podcast sensation has the ear of millions of Americans, and yet Joe Rogan isn't seen as a viable celebrity election candidate. Bookmakers have him down at +10000 in their presidential election odds. Candidates need money to win elections and Rogan has $100m in the bank. But that's not enough yet. Perhaps we'll see him come in 2030 or 2034.
2022 U.S. Midterms
The U.S. midterms provide punters and pollsters with an insight into who America is thinking of voting for two years out from the presidential election. In the 2022 midterms, Americans will vote in 435 new members of the House of Representatives, and 30 of 100 new Senators.
These votes can change the balance of power in both chambers of Congress (the House and the Senate). Right now the Democrats have a House majority but the numbers in the Senate are split 50/50. It means Biden often struggles to force legislation through Congress because all it takes is one Democrat to vote against the government to hold up procedure.
Historically the midterms are a place where voters voice their dissatisfaction with the government, and it's not uncommon to see the opposition party claim the majority of at least one chamber. However, how reliable the midterms are in helping to predict the next president depends on the weight of the result. In 2018 the Democrats overturned a Republican House to claim their biggest gain since 1974, yet lost two further seats in the Senate. In 2014 the GOP won both chambers, which made Barack Obama's final two years as president a very difficult period for passing legislation.
Republican Candidates & Outlook
The Republicans look on course to win a big majority in the House and are also favorites for the Senate. In fact, some bookmakers have priced the GOP at -500 for a House majority, and -245 in the Senate.
The Senate election is perhaps the most fascinating as its seen as a shoot-out between the two parties, currently split 50/50. According to CNN, the 10 Senate seats most likely to flip include those in Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
Democrat Candidates & Outlook
Losing both the House and Senate would be a crushing defeat for the Democrats and set alarm bells ringing in Biden's administration. The Dems are likely to focus heavily on defending the Senate and pray they get enough votes over the line.
The Dems will likely target Ron Johnson's Wisconsin seat and the vacancy left by Richard Burr's retirement in North Carolina. Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley could take this seat.
Betting Presidential Prop Bets
Bookmakers in many US states take odds on the presidential election and they have learned from Europe how to create some fascinating presidential prop bets. It turns out politics betting fans love to wager on different events, just like fans of NY sportsbook promos.
A prop bet is a type of wager that isn't focused on the end result. It is a bet on an event that orbits the main show, such as first touchdown or most strikeouts. With props in politics betting, you can wager on outcomes such as:
Republicans winning +/- 50 seats in the Senate
Donald Trump / Ron DeSantis winning ticket
Individual state betting
Which news outlet will call the election first
What color tie is Donald Trump wearing
Presidential Betting Odds Explained
Understanding presidential betting odds is hugely important before placing a wager. The odds effectively show you how many dollars you would make as profit if you were to place a $100 bet.
So, odds of +200 means you'd earn $200 profit + your $100 stake = $300. Remember, you can always use a bet calculator or check your risk and reward in your bet slip, before completing a wager.
Why politics odds are different to most sports odds is because there are more than two candidates in the market. This means that the odds can fluctuate wildly.
Think of it like betting on a horse race months before the event begins. You're not sure who will be racing, let alone winning, and so the odds on Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and everyone else are much higher before the primaries.
Once it's a one-on-one race, you can be sure the 2024 presidential election odds for the final two candidates will shrink. And the shorter your odds, the smaller your potential profits.
